The World's Most Complicated Conflict Gets Murkier as Kagame Looks for an Excuse

 I’ve spent the better part of the last four days working in Gulu, a town that feels refreshingly removed from the current conflict in neighboring DR Congo, despite the legacies of the LRA insurgency having long ago spilled across the borders. When I left on Friday there was a hope that Museveni and Kagme, Uganda and Rwanda’s respective autocrats who have been accused by the United Nations of supporting M23 in Eastern DR Congo, would provide an opportunity for the rebels to leave their strategic stronghold in Goma. Indeed, along with other less influential but perhaps more impartial leaders involved with the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, a deadline to vacate Goma was set for midnight on Monday.

Since I’ve returned from Gulu, the murky realities of the current DR Congo crisis have expanded and more actors have reportedly become involved. M23, a rebel group comprised of Tutsi Congolese fighters with logistical and material backing provided by Rwanda (allegedly, of course), have refused to leave Goma until their demands have been met. Among these demands are a release of all political prisoners, dissolution of the electoral commission enacted by DR Congo’s President Kabila, and the withdraw of the FDLR from their current positions throughout the region. None of these demands will be easily met, even if they were agreed upon, which is unlikely. This morning, Rwanda accused FDLR troops of entering its country from positions in Eastern DR Congo and attacking numerous villages before being chased away by Rwanda’s army, the RDF. FDLR’s spokesman has refuted the accusation and at present there are no independent reports.

The thing that scares me the most in high tension, pre-conflict situations (I use this to reference a direct military confrontation between Rwanda and DR Congo, as one could easily argue that Rwanda’s support of M23 is tantamount to cross-border warfare) is the emergence of an excuse. Last week reports emerged that the Congolese military, the FARDC, shelled positions along its border with Rwanda, although there was no escalation of conflict from Kigali. Then again, there didn’t need to be with M23 sleeping comfortably across the border. This time I’m not so sure Kagame will allow FARDC incursions into his territory, if there even were cross-border raids by the Hutu rebels. It wouldn’t be the first time he’s used FARDC activities as an excuse for wider conflict escalation.

The conflict in DR Congo is easily one of the most, if not the most, complicated, devastating and under-reported conflicts in the world. The size, scope and duration of the conflict are hard to wrap your head around at the most elementary of levels. Take into consideration Belgian colonialism, the Cold War involvement of the United States and Belgium in Patrice Lumumba’s assassination, the sheer amount of state and non-state actors involved since 1996 as well as their roles and ambitions in the conflict (if they have any at all besides general anarchy), the implications of conflict on mineral and resource trading, and the devastating human toll of the conflict, and you still barely scratch the surface.

And here we go again, as it seems. 

As of present, the FARDC’s spokesperson has stated that M23’s refusal to leave Goma is an act of war, and they will respond in kind. I highly doubt the FARDC - an incredibly inept fighting force that suffered one of its most embarrassing defeats when a rebel group less than a year old took Goma without firing a shot – will launch an incursion into Goma, especially given the amount of soldiers and policemen who have defected to M23 since they took Goma. The situation is so fluid, however, that from time I finish writing this to the time I’ve finished posting it, everything could change.

Hopefully, Kagame doesn’t have his excuse yet, or at least doesn’t use it.